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Mar 9, 2009 - Issue #153



Valuation?



Valuation? Why does fundamental investment analysis no longer seem to work? In a word, Socialism. How do we factor in 'moral hazard' risk into our equations? Privatising profits while socializing losses rewards the 'bad guys' and punishes the 'good guys'.

CNBC should be asking, 'Why should we be surprised that investors are being driven away?'

The Obama administration and the Dems promised change. Really? All that has changed is, 'more of the same', only on steroids.

Where Bush was criticized, rightfully so, for allowing spending to get out of hand, Obama has tripled in his first month what Bush spent in eight years. Liberals say he didn't spend enough.

Just how much has this administration spent? To put it in perspective: If you had spent $1 million per day, every day, since the birth of Christ (over 2,000 years), you still would not have spent what Obama, Pelosi, and Reed have spent in the first 30 days of the Obama presidency. And he's not finished yet. And how many Republicans have joined in the spending spree?

Obama says lobbyists are not welcome. Really? Their influence is larger than ever.

Heads Up

W. D. Gann, a keen market observer, although not an astronomer, nevertheless, was fascinated by the apparent coincidence of important market 'pivot points' and astronomical dates. Theories exist for estimating time and price of important market turning points but astronomical occurrences are computed with mathematical certainty.

There is no logical reason why these occurrences should coincide yet, empirically, they have. The 'Full Moon' and 'New Moon', among others, have been cited. Therefore, one might be well advised to be aware of their occurrence. Note: The first 5 business days of 2008 concluded on a 'New Moon' and we all know how that worked out. Coincidence?

3/10 Tuesday - Full Moon.

3/26 Thursday - New Moon.

During the next two weeks, the following Dow components report earnings. Keep a sharp eye out for possible price swings leading up to 'earnings day' (Subject to revision):

None.

Dow score card for the week ending 3/6/09.

DJ-30: 6626.94 -435.99 -6.17%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 27.73 -1.83 -6.17%.

UP: 1, Down: 29.

Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.

Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 0 (-1) 0%:

None.

Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 5 (-4) 17%:

BAC, IBM, +*INTC, +*PFE, WMT.

Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 25 (+4) 83%:

AA, AXP, BA, C, CAT, CVX, DD, DIS, GE, -*GM, -*HD, HPQ, JNJ, -*JPM, KFT, -*KO, MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT, PG, -*T, UTX, -*VZ, XOM.

+/- denotes change of direction.

* denotes change of category.





Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!

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