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Nov 19, 2007 - Issue #085



Timing is Everything!



Timing in the market is, indeed, everything.

Where are we now as far as the market's 'clock' is concerned? Specifically, the Dow-30?

The 'Dow' is currently residing just above the 40-day exponential moving average, having descended through the 20-day ema two weeks back. Some 'technicians' use simple moving averages. I prefer the exponential or 'weighted' variety.

If the 40-day ema doesn't stem the decline, the next level should be the 80-day ema.

No one rings a bell when market tops and bottoms are reached but the market action of 8 Nov surely signaled something, based upon the activity since then, wouldn't you say?

In other words, rallies are probably 'shorting' (put buying) opportunities until proven otherwise.

Dow score card for the week ending 11/16/07.

DJ-30: 13176.79 +134.05 +1.03%. The Real World DJ-30: 54.03 +0.55 +1.04%.

UP: 20, Down: 10.

Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.

Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 9 (+2) 30%:

GE, INTC, +*JNJ, KO, MCD, MO, MRK, +*PG, UTX.

Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 10 (n/c) 33%:

DIS, HON, HPQ, +*IBM, +*JPM, MSFT, T, VZ, +*WMT, XOM.

Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 11 (-2) 37%:

AA, AIG, AXP, BA, C, CAT, -*DD, GM, HD, MMM, PFE.

+/- denotes change of direction.

* denotes change of category.







Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!

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