Dec 22, 2008 - Issue #142
Ticking Time Bomb
Ticking time bomb as in President Bush re-set the clock. The ball is now in President-elect
CNBC had Bernie Madoff to fill air space (over and over) as many denizens of Wall Street
are gone for the holidays. The 'triple witch' December options and futures expiration was
pretty much a non-event. No one waits until the last minute to unwind or roll their
As usual, the 'advice' on how to avoid being taken by investment advisors is too late for
the victims: "Don't let advisors handle your funds or securities." Duh!!!
Have you noticed the steady decline in volatility lately (67% less than a month ago)?
Could it be that complacency is setting in? Jan '09 is nigh. President-elect Obama has
stated, "things will get worse, before they get better." What is there to be complacent
about? Moving averages (20, 40, & 200 sma) are anything but bullish. Options are not
historically cheap but they are a lot cheaper than they were only a month ago. Should we
be getting ready to buy some cheap 'insurance'?
During the next two weeks, the following Dow components report earnings. Keep a sharp eye
out for possible price swings leading up to 'earnings day' (Subject to revision):
Dow score card for the week ending 12/17/08.
DJ-30: 8579.11 -50.57 -0.59%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 35.90 -0.21 -0.59%.
UP: 13, Down: 17.
Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.
Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 6 (n/c) 20%:
CAT, +*IBM, +*JNJ, +*MRK, PFE, +*UTX.
Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 24 (+2) 80%:
AA, AXP, BA, BAC, C, -*CVX, DD, DIS, GE, GM, HD, -*HPQ, -*INTC, JPM, KFT, KO, MCD, +*MMM,
MSFT, +*PG, T, VZ, WMT, -*XOM.
Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 0 (-2) 0%:
+/- denotes change of direction.
* denotes change of category.
Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!