Oct 8, 2007 - Issue #079
Pathetic! While the averages were scoring new record highs, the volume was
When, in history, has a new upside breakout bull market phase ever kicked off
with such meager clout? This market's gas tank is running uphill on fumes!
And what did I say last week about 'earnings warnings'? Check out NutriSystem (NTRI);
Down 33% in one day! And the volume was definitely not pathetic on that one.
In Larry Williams enlightening book, The Right Stock at the Right Time, is a
table entitled, The 10-Year Stock Market Cycle: Annual Percent Change in Standard &
Poor's Composite Index Past 100 Years.
Based on December prices, years' that end in the number 7 have declined 70% of the
time, year-over-year with an accumulated % change of -74%. That's the bad news.
The good news is that years' that end in 8 have risen 80% of the time with an
accumulated % change of 164%.
The implication being, if history is to be our guide, look for good buying opportunities
if the market declines between now and year end in anticipation of a strong up market
That means the S&P 500 would have to drop over 200 points from here. Interesting.
Dow score card for the week ending 10/5/07.
DJ-30: 14066.01 +170.38 +1.23%. The Real World DJ-30: 57.68 +0.70 +1.23%.
UP: 23, Down: 7.
Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.
Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 17 (+1) 57%:
CAT, +*DIS, GE, GM, HON, HPQ, IBM, INTC, JNJ, KO, MCD, MMM, +*MRK, PG, UTX, VZ, XOM.
Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 9 (-1) 30%:
AA, AXP, BA, DD, JPM, MSFT, PFE, -*T, WMT.
Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 4 (n/c) 13%:
AIG, C, HD, MO.
+/- denotes change of direction.
* denotes change of category.
Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!