Aug 3, 2009 - Issue #174



Obama Waterloo!



Obama Waterloo!

Politicians all over the country have been holding 'town meetings' to hear their constituents feelings on Obama's health care plan. In a nutshell: Any politician backing Obama on anything (health care, public option, single payer, bailouts, deficits, ACORN, community organizing, cap & trade, union checkoff, stimulus, taxes, lack of transparency, hurry up and vote without reading the legislation, etc., etc., ad nauseum) is facing a lynch mob! Obama is finished and so are the politicians backing him. The Dems have failed so miserably on everything they've promised. They're scared to death, rightfully so.

America, apparently, is rejecting Obama's radical hard left socialistic ideology big time.

CNBC has had some commentators recognizing the change in the political environment away from Obama (and the Liberal Progressive Democrats) and the corresponding strengthening in the markets.

The market appears, IMO, to be preparing to pull back. Another 'tool' used by traders to aid in the timing of their trades is the MACD. Note Adam Hewison in the MarketClub videos makes extensive use of the MACD, as well as the Fibonacci retracement tool.

Note currently, on many charts, that the MACD is non-confirming the market highs. That's called 'divergence'. Note, also, that volatility measures are low. All this indicates toppyiness. Buy 'cheap' Puts where you find them.

Heads Up

W. D. Gann, a keen market observer, although not an astronomer, nevertheless, was fascinated by the apparent coincidence of important market 'pivot points' and astronomical dates. Theories exist for estimating time and price of important market turning points but astronomical occurrences are computed with mathematical certainty.

There is no logical reason why these occurrences should coincide yet, empirically, they have. The 'Full Moon' and 'New Moon', among others, have been cited. Therefore, one might be well advised to be aware of their occurrence. Note: The first 5 business days of 2008 concluded on a 'New Moon' and we all know how that worked out. Coincidence?

8/5 Wednesday - Full Moon.

8/20 Thursday - New Moon.

During the next two weeks, the following Dow components report earnings. Keep a sharp eye out for possible price swings leading up to 'earnings day' (Subject to revision):

8/4 KFT, (Transportations) EXPD.

8/5 CSCO, PG, (Transportations) OSG.

8/13 WMT.

Dow score card for the week ending 7/31/09.

DJ-30: 9171.61 +78.37 +0.86%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 40.45 +0.34 +0.86%.

UP: 20, Down: 10.

Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.

Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 17 (-5) 57%:

AA, +*BA, +*BAC, CAT, CSCO, CVX, DD, +*GE, HD, HPQ, IBM, JPM, KFT, MMM, T, VZ, WMT.

Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 12 (+5) 40%:

-*AXP, -*DIS, -*INTC, -*JNJ, KO, -*MRK, MSFT, -*PFE, PG, -*TRV, UTX, -*XOM.

Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 1 (n/c) 3%:

MCD.

+/- denotes change of direction.

* denotes change of category.





Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!

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