Mar 15, 2010 - Issue #206

Microsoft (MSFT) 27.57 Still Critical?

Microsoft (MSFT) 27.57 still critical level?

CNBC might find a technical analyst (Carter Worth???) to agree or disagree?

MSFT has just put in a 'significant' trendline of support on the weekly chart dating from the 3/6/09 low of 14.87 to the 2/8/10 low of 27.57.

Usually, when a trendline takes a long time to 'install', the market is telling us the time for a change of trend is near. Notice it also coincides with the 'lowest low' of the last 3 months. It's as though the market is telling us 'when and where' to exit.

Doing our ABC's tells us what are the possibilities:

Point (A) 12/29 31.50 high.

Point (B) 2/5 27.57 low.

Point (C) 3/12 29.38 high (so far).

Point (D) Potential Swing Target: D = C + (B - A).

Therefore, D = 29.38 + (27.57 - 31.50) = 29.38 -3.93 = 25.45. The MACD on the weekly chart is negative (not good).

Volatility is low. Options are cheap. Buy Puts.

Is the market waiting to see if Pelosi gets enough votes in the House to push through Obamacare???

Heads Up

W. D. Gann, a keen market observer, although not an astronomer, nevertheless, was fascinated by the apparent coincidence of important market 'pivot points' and astronomical dates. Theories exist for estimating time and price of important market turning points but astronomical occurrences are computed with mathematical certainty.

There is no logical reason why these occurrences should coincide yet, empirically, they have.

The 'Full Moon' and 'New Moon', among others, have been cited. Therefore, one might be well advised to be aware of their occurrence. Note: The first 5 business days of 2008 concluded on a 'New Moon' and we all know how that worked out. Coincidence?

3/15 Monday - New Moon.

3/29 Monday - Full Moon.

During the next two weeks, the following DJ-30 components report earnings. Keep a sharp eye out for possible price swings leading up to 'earnings day' (Subject to revision):


Dow score card for the week ending 3/12/10.

DJ-30: 10624.69 +58.49 +0.55%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 46.86 +0.26 +0.56%.

UP: 21, Down: 9.

Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.

Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 19 (-2) 63%:


Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 10 (+2) 33%:

-*AA, -*CVX, -*IBM, JNJ, KO, -*MMM, MRK, PG, -*TRV, WMT.

Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 1 (N/C) 3%:


+/- denotes change of direction.

* denotes change of category.

Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!

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