Sep 21, 2009 - Issue #181



MACD Weakening!



MACD weakening even as market averages move up. Care to hazard a guess as to how that resolves? Picture a car running out of gas as it climbs uphill. Get the picture?

CNBC's Larry Kudlow (Kudlow & Co.) thinks we're in a new bull market. Is he right? What kind of bull market loses momentum on the way up?

Keep in mind low volatility means Options are cheap. Take advantage. Buy insurance. Keep in mind, also, low volatility makes Option selling strategies more difficult.

Low volatility usually indicates market tops. High volatility spikes usually take place at market bottoms.

Check out the market price/volume action of INTC and related Options. Does this look like strength to you???

Last week culminated in a 'new moon'. Something to be aware of.

Heads Up

W. D. Gann, a keen market observer, although not an astronomer, nevertheless, was fascinated by the apparent coincidence of important market 'pivot points' and astronomical dates. Theories exist for estimating time and price of important market turning points but astronomical occurrences are computed with mathematical certainty.

There is no logical reason why these occurrences should coincide yet, empirically, they have. The 'Full Moon' and 'New Moon', among others, have been cited. Therefore, one might be well advised to be aware of their occurrence. Note: The first 5 business days of 2008 concluded on a 'New Moon' and we all know how that worked out. Coincidence?

10/4 Sunday - Full Moon (Observe market action 10/2 Friday & 10/5 Monday).

10/18 Sunday - New Moon (Observe market action 10/16 Friday & 10/19 Monday).

During the next two weeks, the following Dow components report earnings. Keep a sharp eye out for possible price swings leading up to 'earnings day' (Subject to revision):

None.

Dow score card for the week ending 9/18/09.

DJ-30: 9820.20 +214.79 +2.24%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 43.31 +0.94 +2.24%.

UP: 26, Down: 4.

Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.

Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 18 (+7) 60%:

+*AA, AXP, +*BA, CAT, CSCO, CVX, +*DD, DIS, GE, +*HD, +*IBM, +*JPM, KO, MMM, +*MSFT, PG, +*T, UTX.

Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 9 (-8) 30%:

BAC, -*HPQ, INTC, JNJ, +*KFT, +*MCD, MRK, PFE, XOM.

Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 3 (+1) 10%:

-*TRV, -*VZ, -*WMT.

+/- denotes change of direction.

* denotes change of category.





Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!

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