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Jul 17, 2006 - Issue #015


Well, as mentioned last week, we didn't have to wait very long to find out "What is that ticking sound?", did we?

The big question now is: Where does the market go from here?

The phrase most heard on CNBC is "buying opportunity". Is it really? Given the track record of those guest "experts", I have my doubts.

Certainly, a critical examination of stock charts gives little cause for the bulls case.

Just a few items: (1) Gold and oil are up, not down. (2) Equity markets the world over are down, not up. And (3) the middle eastern war/oil situation looks odds on to be more of the same.

If that looks bullish to you, obviously, you see something that I don't. In fact, this could have a long way to go before the worst is over. This could be just the beginning of the ride down. Who can tell?

My point: Until the market shakes out all, and I mean ALL, of the weak hands, does this market have any reason to stage a rally?

Only 1 of the 30 Dow components was up for the week: Exxon Mobil (XOM), the only oil stock in the Dow. Wouldn't you know it?

Trendwise: 9 rising, 9 consolidating, and 12 declining, in my judgement.

Intel (INTC), on the weekly chart, seems to be holding up rather well, in the face of all this. That could change, but so far, so good.

Selling off money-losing operations and eliminating 1,000 middle managers (1% of the work force) may be bad news for the employees affected it is the smart business thing to do. And it's better for the remaining employees.

Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!

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