Jul 7, 2008 - Issue #118
Energy Peaked? Could be. CNBC take note. What is the evidence?
(1) Pathetic rise in the price of crude oil, this week.
(2) Energy stocks, in my judgement, are demonstrating signs of peaking across the board.
(3) Airlines have grounded large portions of their fleets because of increased cost of
(4) Retail gasoline prices, for the first time in history, in response to decreased
holiday travel has not increased at the pump.
(5) Consumer and investor confidence, apparently, 'sucks'.
Does that mean stocks are a 'buy'? Maybe. If your time horizon, as an investor is far
There has been so much damage to portfolios that, even if we were on 'bottom' (there is
no evidence of that), it will take much time for that to sink in to the market
participants psyche. This 'bear' may be just getting started.
Let's face it, the consumer is tapped out. Employment is down, according to the latest
figures. Housing and credit are in chaos. More subprime 'toxic waste' write-offs are
The political and taxation outlook is ominous. Democrats have admitted they plan to
nationalize the oil industry à la Venezuela's Chavez. An Obama win will guarantee that
future Supreme Court appointees will be activist 'liberal' judges, once again. National
Health Care will cover all illegal immigrants thereby raising costs and decreasing
service for legal citizens. Government bureaucrats will override our physicians à la
Becareful what you wish for, America.
Dow score card for the week ending 7/3/08.
DJ-30: 11288.54 -57.97 -0.51%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 46.22 -0.23 -0.51%.
UP: 12, Down: 18.
Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.
Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 1 (+1) 3%:
Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 11 (+6) 37%:
+*AXP, CVX, +*GE, +*JNJ, +*JPM, +*MCD, +*PFE, +*PG, +*VZ, WMT, XOM.
Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 18 (-7) 60%:
AA, AIG, BA, BAC, C, CAT, DD, DIS, GM, HD, HPQ, IBM, INTC, KO, MMM, -*MSFT, T, UTX.
+/- denotes change of direction.
* denotes change of category.
Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!