Dec 3, 2007 - Issue #087
Disturbing because an analysis of the swings of the Dow does not exactly fill one with
a feeling of confidence.
Note the upward swings are smaller and the downward swings greater in magnitude than
previously. Not bullish. This, in my judgment, indicates a market getting weaker.
If this is true, the obvious course would be to cash and buy put options on stocks
showing weakness. Buy strength, sell weakness. Nothing new there.
Watching CNBC, the hardest thing is to be able to interpret market action as it's happening. How many
are guilty of denial and refuse to believe what is happening right in front of them?
Investors are readily able to embrace what they perceive to be the 'good' and dismiss
out of hand the 'bad', or so it seems.
The panic always seems to come at the end, rather than the beginning.
The Fed will take it's best shot on December 11th. It had
better work or look out below.
Dow score card for the week ending 11/30/07.
DJ-30: 13371.72 +390.84 +3.01%. The Real World DJ-30: 54.83 +1.60 +3.01%.
UP: 27, Down: 3.
Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.
Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 9 (+1) 30%:
INTC, JNJ, KO, MCD, MO, MRK, PG, UTX, +*WMT.
Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 10 (+1) 33%:
GE, +*GM, HON, HPQ, IBM, +*JPM, MMM, MSFT, VZ, XOM.
Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 11 (-2) 37%:
AA, AIG, AXP, BA, C, CAT, DD, DIS, HD, PFE, T.
+/- denotes change of direction.
* denotes change of category.
Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!