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Mar 26, 2007 - Issue #051
Dow score card for the week ending 3/23/07.
DJ-30: 12481.01 +370.60 +3.06%. In the Real World: 51.93 +1.54 +3.06%.
UP: 29 (+21), Down: 0 (-22), N/C 1 (+1).
Trends (weekly): This is the subjective part.
Rising 8 (+3):
AA, +*BA, +*DIS, HON, KO, +*MO, T, UTX.
Consolidating 20 (+3):
AIG, AXP, +*C, CAT, DD, +*GE, GM, HD, HPQ, IBM, JPM, MCD, +*MMM, MRK, +*MSFT, PFE, +*PG,
VZ, WMT, +*XOM.
Declining 2 (-6):
+/- denotes change of direction.
* denotes change of category.
The anticipated assult on the 2/20 Dow high appears to be in progress. I say "appears"
because it came out of the blue with what looks like very little foundation.
Significant intermediate points usually take more time. This one, if it's for real, was
established in record time. However, after seven days of almost unimpeded advance, notice
the declining volume of the last two days. What can we surmise from this?
If the market pulls back to test support at the 3/20 high, which should now become a
"floor", and it holds, a significant rising trend line, of some importance would then be
evident dating from 7/18/06 to 3/14/07 which would be "significant" indeed.
Significant because it would be a factor indicating the line of least resistance to be
up. Significant also in the sense that should such a rising trend line be violated, it
would be a factor indicating a change of character taking place and the line of least
resistance to be down or at least sideways. Under such circumstances, in my judgement,
the 2/20 Dow high would then have to be seriously considered to be promoted in importance
to that of major top.
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