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The Inner Circle, Issue #401 - Lie of The Year
December 15, 2013
Hi <>,

Lie of The Year

Lie of The Year awarded by PolitiFacts to Obama.

Argument for Intel (INTC):

Anytime a quality company becomes available at depressed prices, (IMO) it should be bought.

MarketClub's Trade Triangle Technology algorithms now rank INTC primary trend 'up'.

INTC is now the 3rd of 10 highest dividend yielding stocks in the DJ-30 'Dow Dogs' (3.69%).

INTC is now the 2nd of 5 lowest priced stocks among the 'Dow Small Dogs'.

Earnings are rising.

Week ending 12/13 INTC closed 24.29 (above the 50 SMA - Favorable). Stocks rise until they meet resistance then reverse until they find support. 9/3 low 21.97 is now key algo (primary trend).

Recent resistance pivot point: 12/6 (lower high) 25.25.

Recent support pivot point: 12/3 (lower low) 23.40.

INTC 'gapped' up 12/6 without taking out 11/21 higher high pivot. Will it pull back to 12/5 high 24.35 filling the gap? Yes. Gap filled 12/13 low 24.16.

Critical: 50 SMA crossed above 200 SMA on weekly chart = 'Golden Cross' (favorable).

Earnings: 5 yr avg EPS: 1.74. TTM EPS: 1.85. Current P/E: 13.13. Forward P/E: 12.94.

Est Avg Yr EPS: 1.89. Est Yr High EPS: 1.93. Est Yr Low EPS: 1.80 (per analysts).

Next earnings date: 1/16.

The combination of low price/high yield + support at the 50 & 200 SMA = opportunity (IMO).

Whether you buy stock, protect with puts (& collect dividends) or buy calls (whatever suits your style), a limited risk/high reward position can be constructed. Each strategy has its own follow-up tactics, depending on how it plays out.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Warning: Political Risk (Obamacare).

Critical: Are we witnessing distribution during rising prices taking place? Entire health insurance industry?

Week ending 9/20 'Bearish Engulfing + 6' candlestick formation (weekly chart) indicates serious liquidation took place.

Reportedly health insurers received bad data from federal government causing heavy sell off.

UNH has put in new lower low pivot point 10/28 (66.72) Note: Lowest low of last 3 months (very weak). Move challenging previous (lower high) pivot point: 10/16 (75.49) failed.

Recent resistance: 11/26 (higher high pivot) 74.99. Now searching for support.

Possible support: 12/5 low 72.54 (failed). Key algo: 9/16 high (75.88) (daily chart).

UNH now below 50 SMA daily (bearish) & above 200 SMA weekly charts (bullish).

MarketClub's monthly 'Trade Triangles' ranks UNH in primary (monthly) up and weekly down trends.

Earnings: 5 yr avg EPS: 4.41. TTM EPS: 5.29. Current P/E: 13.32. Forward P/E: 12.93.

Est Avg Yr EPS: 5.49. Est Yr High EPS: 5.47. Est Yr Low EPS: 5.45 (per analysts).

Next earnings date: 1/16.

Cisco Systems (CSCO):

Week ending 12/13 CSCO closed 20.24 (Yield: 3.26%).

CSCO is 7th of 10 highest yielding DJ-30 stocks.

CSCO is 1st of 5 lowest priced among the 'Small Dogs'.

Earnings are rising (so far).

Recent support: 11/14 pivot point (lower low) 20.77 broken. Searching for new support.

CSCO below 50 & 200 SMA daily & weekly charts (bearish).

Possible resistance: 10/24 low 22.10.

Earnings: 5 yr avg EPS: 1.37. TTM EPS: 1.84. Current P/E: 11.00. Forward P/E: 10.37.

Est Avg Yr EPS: 1.98. Est Yr High EPS: 2.03. Est Yr Low EPS: 1.86 (per analysts).

Next earnings date: 2/12/14.

Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!
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