Oct 12, 2009 - Issue #184



What Trend?



What trend? Everything is congested.

Note the majority of Dow components, for the past two weeks, are concentrated in the middle consolidating category. More accurately, stocks have been rotating in and out, taking turns, without much follow through.

The 'average' may look as though the trend is up. The individual components say something different.

We are in 'earnings season'. Some companies are reporting higher earnings, even as revenues are declining. This cannot continue indefinitely and still stay in business. Costs and expenses can only be cut so far. Sales must increase, or else.

A weak dollar makes it easier to sell overseas but it also makes everything more expensive at home which makes voters upset. Question: Upset enough to throw the bastards out?

IMO, the market is reflecting the combined socio/economic/political situation present here and abroad.

Watch the unfolding political situation for indications of pending change.

Heads Up

W. D. Gann, a keen market observer, although not an astronomer, nevertheless, was fascinated by the apparent coincidence of important market 'pivot points' and astronomical dates. Theories exist for estimating time and price of important market turning points but astronomical occurrences are computed with mathematical certainty.

There is no logical reason why these occurrences should coincide yet, empirically, they have. The 'Full Moon' and 'New Moon', among others, have been cited. Therefore, one might be well advised to be aware of their occurrence. Note: The first 5 business days of 2008 concluded on a 'New Moon' and we all know how that worked out. Coincidence?

10/18 Sunday - New Moon (Observe market action 10/16 Friday & 10/19 Monday).

During the next two weeks, the following Dow components report earnings. Keep a sharp eye out for possible price swings leading up to 'earnings day' (Subject to revision):

10/13 INTC, JNJ, (Transportations) CSX, JBHT.

10/14 JPM, (Transportations) AMR, LSTR.

10/15 IBM, (Transportations) LUV, YRCW.

10/16 BAC, GE.

10/20 CAT, DD, KO, PFE, UTX, (Transportations) CHRW.

10/21 BA, MCD.

10/22 AXP, MMM, MRK, T, TRV, (Transportations) BNI, GMT, JBLU, OSG, R, UNP, UPS.

10/23 MSFT.

Dow score card for the week ending 10/9/09.

DJ-30: 9864.94 +377.27 +3.98%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 43.51 +1.66 +3.97%.

UP: 26, Down: 4.

Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.

Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 8 (+7) 27%:

+*AA, CSCO, +*DIS, +*IBM, +*INTC, +*JNJ, +*KO, +*PFE.

Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 20 (+3) 67%:

+*AXP, BA, +*BAC, CAT, +*CVX, +*DD, GE, +*HD, HPQ, +*JPM, +*KFT, MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT, PG, TRV, +*UTX, +*WMT, +*XOM.

Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 2 (-10) 7%:

-*T, -*VZ.

+/- denotes change of direction.

* denotes change of category.





Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!

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