May 3, 2010 - Issue #213



Swing Top?



Swing Top?

CNBC viewers witnessed a heavy 'sell off' at Friday's close ending not only the month of April but also the Q1 earnings season.

DJ-30 weekly chart shows the average bumped it's head on the 200ma. Ouch! That's gotta hurt.

After eight consecutive weeks of higher closes, is it time for a down swing?

Dow score card shows 11 components (37%) in declining trends. If that figure increases to 16 (over 50% negative) a down swing will be in progress.

MarketClub urges caution based on their Fibonacci retracement reading.

Volatility is heating up (always a bearish sign).

Buying SH (ProShares Short S&P500 ETF) will 'short' the entire SP-500.

Heads Up

W. D. Gann, a keen market observer, although not an astronomer, nevertheless, was fascinated by the apparent coincidence of important market 'pivot points' and astronomical dates. Theories exist for estimating time and price of important market turning points but astronomical occurrences are computed with mathematical certainty.

There is no logical reason why these occurrences should coincide yet, empirically, they have.

The 'Full Moon' and 'New Moon', among others, have been cited. Therefore, one might be well advised to be aware of their occurrence. Note: The first 5 business days of 2008 concluded on a 'New Moon' and we all know how that worked out. Coincidence?

5/13 Thursday - New Moon.

5/27 Thursday - Full Moon.

During the next two weeks, the following DJ-30 components report earnings. Keep a sharp eye out for possible price swings leading up to 'earnings day' (Subject to revision):

5/4 MRK, PFE.

5/6 KFT.

5/11 DIS.

5/12 CSCO.

Dow score card for the week ending 4/30/10.

DJ-30: 11008.61 -195.67 -1.75%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 48.55 -0.87 -1.75%.

UP: 2, Down: 28.

Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.

Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 2 (-11) 7%:

+*DIS, MMM.

Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 17 (+4) 57%:

-*AXP, -*BA, -*CAT, -*CSCO, -*CVX, -*DD, GE, -*HD, IBM, INTC, -*MCD, +*MRK, -*MSFT, PFE, -*T, -*UTX, -*XOM.

Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 11 (+7) 37%:

-*AA, -*BAC, -*HPQ, -*JNJ, JPM, KFT, -*KO, -*PG, -*TRV, VZ, -*WMT.

+/- denotes change of direction.

* denotes change of category.





Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!

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