May 14, 2012 - Issue #319



Real Unemployment Rate Under Obama?



Real unemployment rate under Obama: 22.5% (counting everyone out of work/underemployed).

Obama campaigning to "empty seats" (Fox News).

Allen West to Republicans: Go on offense - "Attack like shark's smelling blood in the water!"

Obama administration: A disaster. It must go. The most critical election in our history.

MarketClub Primary Trend (monthly algorithms):

UP (19): AXP, BA, BAC, DD, DIS, GE, HD, IBM, INTC, KFT, KO, MMM, MRK, MSFT, PFE, PG, T, TRV, VZ.

DOWN (11): AA, CAT, CSCO, CVX, HPQ, JNJ, JPM, MCD, UTX, WMT, XOM.

Dow Dogs (10 highest yielding): T, VZ, MRK, PFE, JNJ, GE, CVX, PG, DD, JPM.

Dow Small Dogs (5 lowest priced of the 10 highest yielding): MRK, JPM, T, PFE, GE.

Corporate stock earnings yields (as of 4/30) still above corporate bond yields thus favoring stocks.

IONOPTIONS Ron Ianieri: Be very, very careful. Markets extremely vulnerable.

U. S. Political situation: Extremely vulnerable. Only rational solution: Regime change.

Romney: "It's still about the economy... and we're not stupid!"

Wisconsin June re-call election extremely critical for entire country.

Supreme Court ruling on constitutionality of Obamacare (due out late June): Ticking time bomb. Likely market effect: Explosive.

Countdown till 2012 elections: 25 weeks.

Heads Up

W. D. Gann, a keen market observer, although not an astronomer, nevertheless, was fascinated by the apparent coincidence of important market 'pivot points' and astronomical dates. Theories exist for estimating time and price of important market turning points but astronomical occurrences are computed with mathematical certainty.

There is no logical reason why these occurrences should coincide yet, empirically, they have.

The 'Full Moon' and 'New Moon', among others, have been cited. Therefore, one might be well advised to be aware of their occurrence. Note: The first 5 business days of 2008 concluded on a 'New Moon' and we all know how that worked out. Coincidence?

5/5 Saturday - Full Moon (Observe market action Friday & Monday).

5/20 Sunday - New Moon (Beware!) Observe market action Friday & Monday.

During the next two weeks, the following DJ-30 components report earnings. Keep a sharp eye out for price swings, up or down, (possible trading on 'inside information'?) leading up to 'earnings day' (Subject to revision):

5/15 HD.

5/17 WMT.

5/23 HPQ (1Q 2012 earnings season ends).

Dow score card for the week ending 5/11/12.

DJ-30: 12820.60 -217.67 -1.67%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 56.47 -0.95 -1.67%.

UP: 8, Down: 22.

Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.

Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 3 (-2) 10%:

+*DIS, T, VZ.

Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 14 (-6) 47%:

AXP, BA, CVX, IBM, JNJ, KFT, KO, MMM, -*MRK, MSFT, PFE, +*PG, -*TRV, WMT.

Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 13 (+8) 43%:

-*AA, BAC, CAT, CSCO, -*DD, -*GE, -*HD, -*HPQ, -*INTC, JPM, -*MCD, -*UTX, -*XOM.

+/- denotes change of direction.

* denotes change of category.





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