Mar 7, 2010 - Issue #205



Microsoft (MSFT) 27.57 Critical?



Microsoft (MSFT) 27.57 critical level?

CNBC might find a technical analyst to agree or disagree?

MSFT did not participate in Friday's fireworks show, one of the few DJ-30 components ending down for the day and the week.

After taking out the 2/18 swing high of 29.03 on Monday 3/1 and continuing the next day, Tuesday 3/2, a little further up to 29.30 only to give it all up, tumbling to a 28.24 low point on heavy selling. Look at the heavy selling that took place previously on 1/29.

The low of 2/5 (27.57) happens to be the lowest low of the past three months. Violate that and the light goes red at MarketClub flashing a sell signal on the monthly chart.

Doing our ABC's tells us what are the possibilities:

Point (A) 12/29 31.50 high.

Point (B) 2/5 27.57 low.

Point (C) 3/2 29.30 high (so far).

Point (D) Potential Swing Target: D = C + (B - A).

Therefore, D = 29.30 + (27.57 - 31.50) = 29.30 -3.93 = 25.37

The DJ-30 came within 158 points of taking out the 1/19 top. Will it do it? To be determined.

Does Pelosi having enough votes in the House to push through Obamacare have anything to do with it???

Heads Up

W. D. Gann, a keen market observer, although not an astronomer, nevertheless, was fascinated by the apparent coincidence of important market 'pivot points' and astronomical dates. Theories exist for estimating time and price of important market turning points but astronomical occurrences are computed with mathematical certainty.

There is no logical reason why these occurrences should coincide yet, empirically, they have.

The 'Full Moon' and 'New Moon', among others, have been cited. Therefore, one might be well advised to be aware of their occurrence. Note: The first 5 business days of 2008 concluded on a 'New Moon' and we all know how that worked out. Coincidence?

3/15 Monday - New Moon.

3/29 Monday - Full Moon.

During the next two weeks, the following DJ-30 components report earnings. Keep a sharp eye out for possible price swings leading up to 'earnings day' (Subject to revision):

None.

Dow score card for the week ending 3/5/10.

DJ-30: 10566.20 +240.94 +2.33%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 46.60 +1.06 +2.33%.

UP: 27, Down: 3.

Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.

Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 21 (+17) 70%:

+*AA, +*AXP, +*BA, BAC, +*CAT, +*CSCO, +*CVX, +*DD, +*DIS, +*GE, HD, +*HPQ, +*IBM, +*INTC, JPM, +*KFT, +*MMM, +*TRV, UTX, +*VZ, +*XOM.

Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 8 (-15) 27%:

JNJ, +*KO, MCD, MRK, MSFT, PG, +*T, WMT.

Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 1 (-2) 3%:

PFE.

+/- denotes change of direction.

* denotes change of category.





Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!

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