Apr 12, 2010 - Issue #210

Let the Games Begin!

CNBC kicks off the earnings season in earnest with AA, after the closing bell.

AA estimated .11 per share ('whispered' at .14), stage is set!

The best strategy I've seen for playing the 'earnings game' is to trade the run up (if any) a week or two prior to the reporting day and closing the position before the announcement. Sticking around for the actual announcement simply isn't worth it.

Will AA break up or break down? To be determined. Stay tuned sports fans.

Option implied volatility is screaming at 66 - 68. Wow!

Do you really want to stick your head in that meat-grinder???

Symetrical 'Trident' analysis still says 9.81 is possible. Time will tell. The parameters are always changing.

Heads Up

W. D. Gann, a keen market observer, although not an astronomer, nevertheless, was fascinated by the apparent coincidence of important market 'pivot points' and astronomical dates. Theories exist for estimating time and price of important market turning points but astronomical occurrences are computed with mathematical certainty.

There is no logical reason why these occurrences should coincide yet, empirically, they have.

The 'Full Moon' and 'New Moon', among others, have been cited. Therefore, one might be well advised to be aware of their occurrence. Note: The first 5 business days of 2008 concluded on a 'New Moon' and we all know how that worked out. Coincidence?

4/14 Wednesday - New Moon.

4/28 Wednesday - Full Moon.

During the next two weeks, the following DJ-30 components report earnings. Keep a sharp eye out for possible price swings leading up to 'earnings day' (Subject to revision):

4/12 AA.

4/13 INTC.

4/14 JPM.

4/16 BAC, GE.

4/19 IBM.

4/20 JNJ, KO.

4/21 BA, MCD, T, UTX.

4/22 AXP, MSFT, VZ.

4/23 TRV.

Dow score card for the week ending 4/9/10.

DJ-30: 10997.35 +70.28 +0.64%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 48.51 +0.3 +0.64%.

UP: 18, Down: 12.

Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.

Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 11 (+2) 37%:

+*AXP, +*BAC, CAT, CVX, +*DD, DIS, +*HD, +*HPQ, +*JPM, MCD, +*XOM.

Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 16 (-5) 53%:

AA, -*BA, CSCO, GE, IBM, INTC, -*JNJ, KFT, KO, -*MMM, MSFT, PFE, T, -*UTX, -*VZ, WMT.

Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 3 (+3) 0%:

-*MRK, -*PG, -*TRV.

+/- denotes change of direction.

* denotes change of category.