Apr 9, 2012 - Issue #313



Deteriorating Market Internals?



Deteriorating market internals?

MarketClub's primary trend algorithm (lowest low of last 3 months) for many DJ-30 components has risen close to the current market (CVX, JNJ, KFT, MRK, PFE, TRV, VZ, WMT, XOM) indicating we may be close to a change of primary trend from up to down in those stocks.

Primary down trend currently: AA, BA, HPQ, MCD.

Latest jobs report was not well received indicating down opening 3/9 which may trigger.

Fox News reports real unemployment rate: 14.5%. $4 gal. gas.

Corporate stock earnings yields (3/30) still above corporate bond yields thus favoring stocks.

Political situation: Stalemate. Solution: Regime change. Anyone but Obama.

Wisconsin June re-call election extremely critical.

Dow Dogs (10 highest yielding): T, VZ, MRK, PFE, JNJ, GE, CVX, PG, DD, KFT.

Dow Small Dogs (5 lowest priced of the 10 highest yielding): KFT, VZ, T, PFE, GE.

Countdown till 2012 elections: 30 weeks.

Heads Up

W. D. Gann, a keen market observer, although not an astronomer, nevertheless, was fascinated by the apparent coincidence of important market 'pivot points' and astronomical dates. Theories exist for estimating time and price of important market turning points but astronomical occurrences are computed with mathematical certainty.

There is no logical reason why these occurrences should coincide yet, empirically, they have.

The 'Full Moon' and 'New Moon', among others, have been cited. Therefore, one might be well advised to be aware of their occurrence. Note: The first 5 business days of 2008 concluded on a 'New Moon' and we all know how that worked out. Coincidence?

4/6 Friday - Full Moon.

4/21 Saturday - New Moon (Beware!) Observe market action Friday & Monday.

During the next two weeks, the following DJ-30 components report earnings. Keep a sharp eye out for price swings, up or down, (possible trading on 'inside information'?) leading up to 'earnings day' (Subject to revision):

4/10 AA.

4/13 JPM.

4/17 IBM, INTC, JNJ, KO.

4/18 AXP.

4/19 BAC, DD, MSFT, TRV, VZ.

4/20 GE, MCD.

Dow score card for the week ending 4/5/12.

DJ-30: 13060.14 -151.90 -1.15%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 57.52 -0.67 -1.15%.

UP: 6, Down: 24.

Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.

Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 2 (-11) 7%:

HD, +*MCD.

Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 23 (+8) 77%:

+*AXP, BA, BAC, +*CAT, -*CSCO, DD, -*DIS, GE, HPQ, -*IBM, -*INTC, -*JNJ, -*JPM, KFT, -*KO, MMM, -*MRK, -*PFE, PG, TRV, UTX, -*WMT, -*XOM.

Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 5 (+3) 17%:

-*AA, -*CVX, -*MSFT, -*T, VZ.

+/- denotes change of direction.

* denotes change of category.





Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!

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