Jul 4, 2011 - Issue #274



Bull Trap?



Bull Trap?

CNBC, Larry Kudlow (Kudlow & Co.), and Fox News notwithstanding, although the daily charts look impressive the weekly charts reveal something else entirely. Specifically, MACD is remarkably unimpressive.

Ron Ianieri (ION OPTIONS) points out: What better day to 'paint the tape' than the Friday before a Monday holiday? The trading crowd is thinned out because everyone who can is gone for an extended holiday so, if you want to make a move that you want to stand out, pre-holiday Friday is the day to do it. Did that just happen??? What do you think?

Have the financial/political problems disappeared? I think not. Are you being manipulated (again)?

Countdown till 2012 elections: 70 weeks.

Heads Up

W. D. Gann, a keen market observer, although not an astronomer, nevertheless, was fascinated by the apparent coincidence of important market 'pivot points' and astronomical dates. Theories exist for estimating time and price of important market turning points but astronomical occurrences are computed with mathematical certainty.

There is no logical reason why these occurrences should coincide yet, empirically, they have.

The 'Full Moon' and 'New Moon', among others, have been cited. Therefore, one might be well advised to be aware of their occurrence. Note: The first 5 business days of 2008 concluded on a 'New Moon' and we all know how that worked out. Coincidence?

7/1 Friday - New Moon. Observe market action 7/1 & 7/5.

7/15 Friday - Full Moon. Observe market action 7/15 & 7/18.

7/30 Saturday - New Moon (Blue Moon) Observe market action 7/29 & 8/1.

During the next two weeks, the following DJ-30 components report earnings. Keep a sharp eye out for possible price swings leading up to 'earnings day' (Subject to revision):

7/11 AA.

7/14 JPM.

7/15 MCD.

Dow score card for the week ending 7/1/11.

DJ-30: 12582.77 +648.19 +5.43%. The Real World (arithmetical) DJ-30: 55.42 +2.86 +5.44%.

UP: 30, Down: 0.

Trends (weekly charts): This is the subjective part.

Rising (Generally Higher Highs/Higher Lows) 21 (+21) 70%:

+*AA, +*AXP, +*BAC, +*CAT, +*CVX, +*DD, +*DIS, +*GE, +*HD, +*HPQ, +*IBM, +*INTC, +*KFT, +*KO, +*MCD, +*MMM, +*MSFT, +*T, +*UTX, +*VZ, +*XOM.

Consolidating (Generally Lower Highs/Higher Lows) 9 (-10) 30%:

+*BA, CSCO, +*JNJ, +*JPM, +*MRK, PFE, +*PG, +*TRV, WMT.

Declining (Generally Lower Highs/Lower Lows) 0 (-11) 0%:

None.

+/- denotes change of direction.

* denotes change of category.





Comments? Ideas? Feedback? Let me have it, right between the eyes! I'd love to hear from you. Just reply to this zine and tell me what you think!

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